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Politika cílování inflace v České republice při úrokových mírách ve stavu technické nuly
Venský, Jakub
Venský, J. Policy of inflation targeting in the Czech Republic in the case of interest rates are in the state of technical zero. Brno: Mendel University, 2015. This thesis deals with policy of inflation targeting in the Czech Republic in the case of interest rates are in the state of technical zero. In the thesis, there are described the monetary policies, which can be used to central bank reach its primary goal in state of technical zero of interest rates. There is conducted qualitative analysis in the form of comparison of the monetary policies in the chosen countries. For the purpose of selecting a suitable instrument was performed a regression model verification of uncovered interest parity. Then, there was suggested appropriate provision to can be achieved the price stability.
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Two Essays on Inflation Targeting
Matějů, Jakub ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Holub, Tomáš (referee)
Title: Two Essays on Inflation Targeting Author: Mgr. Jakub Matějů Department: Institute of Economic Studies Supervisor: Roman Horváth, PhD. Abstract: The thesis consists of two essays on inflation targeting. The first essay examines how do monetary authorities set their inflation targets. Survey of central banks' communication regarding the target is presented, theoretical model is developed and finally empirical analysis is conducted on a panel of inflation targeting countries. This pioneering analysis of the topic leads us to conclusion that inflation targets are influenced by more variables than central banks admit. In addition to past and foreign inflation, inflation variability and GDP growth we find significant impact of central bank credibility and other institutional factors. The short second essay surveys literature assessing performance of inflation targeting and outlines perspectives of inflation targeting as a monetary policy framework. The conclusion is that if inflation targeting central banks stick to their best practice in transparency and communication and remain open to innovations, inflation targeting will have a good chance to score well even in the periods of turmoil.
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Two Essays on Inflation Targeting
Matějů, Jakub ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Koprnická, Kamila (referee)
The thesis consists of two essays on inflation targeting. The hrst essay examines how do centrál banks set their inflation targets. Survey of centrál banks' communication regard-ing the target is presented, theoretical model is developed and finally empirical analysis is conducted on a panel of inflation targeting countries. This pioneering analysis of the topič leads us to conclusion that inflation targets are influenced by more variables than centrál banks admit. In addition to past and foreign inflation, inflation variability and GDP growth we find significant impact of centrál bank credibility and other institutional factors. The short second essay surveys literatúre assessing performance of inflation targeting and outlines perspectives of inflation targeting as a monetary policy framework. The conclusion is that if inflation targeting centrál banks stick to their best practice in transparency and communication and remain open to innovations, inflation targeting will háve a good chance to score well even in the periods of turmoil.
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Monetary policy of the Visegrad group countries in comparison with the Euro area
Alibrahim, Jalaa
Abstract: Alibrahim, Jalaa. Monetary policy of the Visegrad Group countries in comparison with the Euro area. Master thesis, Mendel University in Brno, Brno 2018. The aim of this diploma thesis is to compare monetary policy of Visegrad Group countries and the Euro area (European central bank’s monetary policy within Slovakia) during the observed period from 2001 to 2017 and the focus will be on the inflation in these countries. Research was focused on the long- run relationship between variables under study during the period, application of granger causality and the impulse responses. The empirical results will demonstrate how the variables were moving and related to each other during the period. This will show how the monetary policy in the Visegrad Group countries affected the inflation rate and in comparison, with the ECB policy within Slovakia after 2009.
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A BVAR Model for Forecasting of Czech Inflation
Brázdik, František ; Franta, Michal
Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVAR) have turned out to be useful for medium-term macroeconomic forecasting. Several features of the Czech economy strengthen the rationale for using this approach. These include in particular the short time series available and uncertainty about long-run trends. We compare forecasts based on a small-scale mean-adjusted BVAR with the official forecasts published by the Czech National Bank (CNB) over the period 2008q3–2016q4. The comparison demonstrates that the BVAR approach can provide more precise inflation forecasts over the monetary policy horizon. For other macroeconomic variables, the CNB forecasts either outperform or are comparable with the forecasts based on the BVAR model.
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Examining the Link between Financial Market Efficiency and Monetary Transmission Mechanism
Krejčí, Tadeáš ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Vácha, Lukáš (referee)
In an effort to examine role of capital markets' efficiency in transmission of monetary policy, 28 time series of market efficiency development are estimated with use of long-term memory and fractal dimension measures and a panel of 27 inflation targeting countries is constructed to run a random effect regres- sion. The cases of Czech Republic and Austria are thereafter more closely examined with use a vector-autoregressive and threshold vector-autoregressive frameworks on macroeconomic data spanning from 1996:Q3 to 2018:Q4. The evidence obtained through the conducted analyses support the hypothesis, that a more efficiently functioning capital market better contributes to monetary policy pass-through, or conversely, that high transaction costs, barriers to cap- ital market entry, or poor information availability may hinder the effects of central bank's monetary policy. JEL Classification F12, F21, F23, H25, H71, H87 Keywords capital market efficiency, inflation targeting, monetary transmission mechanism Author's e-mail teddy.krejci@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail LK@fsv.cuni.cz
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The transmission mechanism of the monetary policy impact on the Czech banking sector
Bohovicová, Petra ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Jakl, Jakub (referee)
This thesis analyzes the impact of the monetary policy of the Czech Republic on the Czech banking sector. It explains the monetary transmission mechanism in an inflation targeting regime and its channels: interest rates channel, asset price channel, exchange rate channel and credit channel. The aim of the thesis is to introduce and analyze channels of the Czech transmission mechanism by Correlation and Graphical Analysis of chosen time series and using Linear Regression Model. The analyses are calculated in MS Excel and Gretl.
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Monetary policy at a time of low interest rates and threat of deflation
Kochergin, Aleksei ; Gevorgyan, Kristine (advisor) ; Šíma, Ondřej (referee)
The aim of the bachelor thesis is to analyze the Czech economy during the period of foreign exchange interventions, and several months after them in the situation of impending deflation. The topic is chosen to be the most up-to-date statement by the Czech National Bank council on the termination of the exchange rate commitment, which will undoubtedly define the domestic economy for a certain period of time. The thesis deals with aspects that have forced the Czech national bank to intervene in the foreign exchange market, it examines the state of the economy during the implementation period of the intervention, and then after the end of the exchange rate commitment. The work is divided into three main parts. The first part of this work explains the essence of monetary policy and its application by the central bank. The second part explains the economic nature of deflation and different views on this issue. The third part focuses on the analysis of the economic situation in the Czech Republic and the policy of the central bank. The result of this analysis will be the assessment of the success of selected strategy on the example of macroeconomic indicators and the evaluation of its adequacy due to the findings.
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Analysis of the impact of currency intervention on financial markets and analysis of speculative activity
Langr, Matěj ; Dvořák, Petr (advisor) ; Mazáček, David (referee)
Abstract Objective of this thesis is calculation of the speculative position that is held by the subjects of such speculation on appreciation of Czech currency. Thesis inspects the impacts of currency interventions on domestic financial spot and future markets. Thesis also describes development in the speculative capital inflow, which was conducted with support of quantitative and qualitative data extracted from ARAD database, which runs on Czech national bank domain. Calculation were also conducted by the author of this thesis using Bloomberg Terminal data. The results of this study shows that in total 68,2 billion EUR entered Czech financial market in the form of speculative capital, as well as detailed analysis of speculative capital inflow periods and speculative strategies through which the capital entered. It was also discovered that because of the speculative capital inflow, negative deposit interest rates occurred. Impacts on future/forward markets were discovered as well as impacts on spot markets. Thesis also describes the impact on hedging activity of domestic exporters in the period of exchange rate commitment. Also the impact on inter-bank markets were described with the impact on their balance sheet. Czech republic finds itself in the era of massive foreign exchange reserves, since Czech national bank was forced to buy out EUR liquidity, thus fulfilling exchange rate commitment
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The most significant phases of the monetary policy of the Czech National Bank
Krahulcová, Iveta ; Koderová, Jitka (advisor) ; Revenda, Zbyněk (referee)
The diploma thesis deals with the analysis of the most significant phases of the monetary policy of the Czech National Bank, including the analysis and evaluation of its effectiveness from its origin to the present. The thesis is divided into three individual parts. Each part corresponds to a specific transmission mechanism applied by the Czech National Bank while implementing the monetary policy. Each chapter includes the assessment of the effectiveness of individual approaches and the analysis of the impact of the monetary policy as well as the decision of the Czech National Bank on the Czech economy. The very first chapter is focused on the application of the monetary transmission mechanism in conditions of the fixed exchange rate during which an increasing internal as well as external disequilibrium led to the monetary crisis. The second chapter is dedicated to the transition to the inflation targeting, expert discussion concerning its implementation and the evaluation of the achieved results. The last chapter presents the use of the CNB's additional instrument of the monetary policy in the form of the exchange rate including the reasons that led to this step. The closing part of this chapter focuses on the evaluation of the effectiveness of this policy.
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